Iran’s leadership has issued warnings regarding the country's economic stability and social cohesion as the impact of U.S. economic warfare intensifies.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since the U.S.-Israeli strike on 28 February that killed his father, issued a written statement late last month. In the statement, he banned Iranian officials from “committing anything that harms social cohesion” and urged them to avoid “discouraging statements that weaken national and public motivation,” according to Reuters.

Khamenei expressed specific concern regarding the national economy and called for government intervention.

“There is the need to seriously address the chain of economic and livelihood challenges, such as inflation, unemployment, management of prices and the market for goods and services,” he said.

Economic hardship and long queues at gas stations have prompted fresh protests, although they have not reached the scale seen in January. Previous unrest, triggered by a currency collapse and high inflation last year, resulted in a crackdown by the regime that killed thousands. Since that period, the rial has fallen to new lows, and economic conditions have worsened due to the U.S. war and a naval blockade.

Presidential acknowledgement of trade decline

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also acknowledged the nation's economic difficulties in an interview with state media. While attributing Iran's resilience to its unity, Pezeshkian admitted, “we have many problems.”

Pezeshkian estimated that Iranian trade has fallen between 25% and 35%. He noted that imports have decreased significantly more than exports and expressed frustration with claims that sanctions are ineffective.

“Some people say that sanctions have no effect at all,” he added. “I really don’t know what to tell these people. I just want to say this: Saying that sanctions have no effect is not consistent with these facts.”

The United States is increasing pressure, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing an “economic D-Day” intended to close avenues used by Iran to evade sanctions. This move aims to reduce the regime's ability to generate revenue from oil exports and acquire vital imports. Senior Iranian sources told Reuters that the U.S. blockade and the crackdown on sanctions evasion are becoming increasingly difficult to withstand, noting that efforts to block Iran from international financing networks in other countries represent an urgent threat.

A senior source stated that Iran possesses only two months of gasoline supplies, as limited domestic refining capacity necessitates imports. Current economic indicators include:

• The Iranian currency has crashed to 2.2 million rials per U.S. dollar, down from approximately 1 million a year ago.
• Inflation has risen above 80%.
• Prices for certain food staples have increased by 100%.

U.S. military role and regional tensions

U.S. economic pressure relies on the continued presence of the Navy to maintain the blockade on Iran and to protect oil tankers from Gulf Arab producers as they pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Experts have suggested that the Iranian regime may be prepared to endure economic hardship longer than the U.S. public can tolerate high gas prices, and that Iran only needs to maintain limited strikes on commercial shipping to keep traffic below prewar levels. Such a mission could strain U.S. military resources and readiness.

In an interview on Fox News Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the Navy is improving its ability to defend against Iranian attacks and has received offers of assistance from other countries.

“But there’s simply no other country on earth that has nearly the military capacity of the United States,” he added. “So in this conflict where it’s still a little bit hot, it’s dominated by the United States right now. The other military assets involved are our friends and allies in the region. But to get those from outside of the region, I hope that’s soon.”